Water

Varsha Sivagurunathan:

Scenario planning essentially is about planning for alternative futures. This is especially helpful in times of increasing uncertainty in the water sector. We are finding that there are more floods and droughts and other climatic events that are affecting the way we operate. And scenario planning is essentially a tool that we can use to help prepare for those sorts of uncertain events and explore alternative futures.

So, this Forum that was titled Representing Future Scenarios, their presentation and application essentially looked at bringing together a range of different stakeholders. We had representatives from the state government, utilities, and academia. They all met, and we had a lot of engaging discussions about scenarios in the water industry. They used their knowledge, insight, and expertise to discuss how to present scenarios, how to represent them, and how to use them. It was really exciting.

Some of the questions that were explored were things around what actually makes good scenarios and what are some challenges that you face when you end up trying to create those good scenarios. 

James Macken:

To start with the challenges, it's a complex and messy process. It's designed to be that by nature, meant to be uncomfortable to push our thinking beyond business as usual. So, in that sense, it's not for everyone, and it takes a bit of time to get into the right headspace and to be able to have the discussions needed to think about the future in different ways.

Rachael Wakefield-Rann:

There are many, but I think two are worth emphasising. The first is ensuring adequate participation from the right people. A lot of the time when we develop scenarios, we include people that we think are going to have relevant experience without capturing the full diversity of people that those kinds of visions or the future planning is going to affect. So, figuring out how to get the right people in the room, people from diverse backgrounds and people who might not be incentivised in any kind of conventional way, which is a huge challenge, I think, at the moment and often excludes people who are time poor or of course people who don’t speak English as a first language or may have difficulty with technology or may not be able to access transport, factors like that.

The second key factor is scalability I think, connecting visions that might be affecting a city or an entire landscape and ensuring that our thinking goes from that scale down into the home and back out again. How you actually translate things that might happen at a micro scale up through the miso and to kind of the macro level of understanding of what's happening.

Craig Ma:

When I think about how we can most effectively use scenarios, there are a few things that might help that process along. The first is something I call bookending. So, depending on the scenario, if you can bookend it with a narrative or a description that is quite tangible and plausible and relatable to others, then that's a really good frame to start with. The second thing I would add to the mix is if we can at least timestamp the scenario, give it a sense of urgency or give others an ability to understand how much time do we have to better understand what the scenario might mean for them is also a very useful tool.

And perhaps the final thing would be if we can more effectively link the scenario back to our risk practices, then that really helps people understand the implications of the type of scenario we're talking about. 

Ann-Marie Rohlfs:

Scenarios are used most effectively when they're interactive, when they're brought to life. So, that might be through making them visual, making them interactive, and having participants come and discuss them.

Varsha Sivagurunathan:

So, the Forum concluded with a discussion around the future of futuring in the water sector. Some of the key points and themes that emerged from all of our discussions during the day were about the role of stakeholders. Who should be involved in the process? How do we engage with different stakeholders in a meaningful way to create really good scenarios? The discussions from the day will be useful for policymakers and water planners as we start this journey of planning for uncertain futures in the water industry.