Award-nominated research imagines water catchment futures through modelling and storytelling.
Water is an essential resource facing an uncertain future.
Sydney’s drinking water catchments are essential to the health and wellbeing of over 5 million residents, but they face uncertainties from climate change, population growth, and land use shifts.
The UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF), in collaboration with WaterNSW, has developed innovative future scenarios for 2040 and 2060 to tackle these challenges head-on. The research has been shortlisted as a finalist for the 2025 Australian Water Association NSW Water Awards in the R&D Excellence category.
By combining decades of historical land use data with advanced Geographic Information System (GIS) modelling, the project maps out alternate futures for Sydney’s water catchments.
These future scenarios are helping WaterNSW prepare today to protect Sydney’s drinking water decades into the future.
– A/Prof Simon Fane, ISF
These scenarios incorporate ‘science-based imagination’ to create narrative-driven models that vividly illustrate how different trends – from urban expansion to renewable energy transitions – might shape the region’s water quality and availability.
ISF Associate Professor Simon Fane says, “This project showed the power of developing narratives scenarios and linking them to quantitative modelling of alternative futures.”
“These future scenarios are helping WaterNSW prepare today to protect Sydney’s drinking water decades into the future.”
The research team’s approach offers actionable insights. For instance, the project’s ‘carbon positive’ scenario has already inspired investigations into carbon sequestration, biodiversity regeneration, and renewable energy initiatives within catchments.
These proactive measures underline how the project’s findings are translating into real-world solutions, creating pathways toward a sustainable and resilient water future.
The collaborative nature of the research – which combined ISF’s expertise in futures thinking with WaterNSW’s on-ground knowledge – has been central to its success.
Workshops with WaterNSW staff enriched the scenarios with practical insights, ensuring they reflect the diverse realities of managing catchments in a changing environment.
With its nomination for the R&D Excellence Award, this project exemplifies the power of innovation and collaboration in addressing some of the most pressing challenges facing Australia’s water industry. The recognition also highlights the critical role of forward-thinking research in safeguarding essential resources for future generations.
Watch the video below from the ISF hosted 'Water Futures Forum 2023: Preparing Futures Scenarios, Their Representation, and Application’ which looks at visualising the future for effective water planning.
