Scenarios for global, regional (EU-27), and country-specific (G20 member countries) energy and emission pathways required to achieve a defined carbon budget of between 400 GtCO2 and 500 GtCO2, are developed to limit the mean global temperature rise to 1.5°C, over 50% likelihood. The free available data were calculated with the 1.5 °C sectorial pathways of the One Earth Climate Model—an integrated energy assessment model devised at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS).
Available OECM Data (2023)
All energy and sectoral pathways are open data publication. The following dataset are available:
- Market development: current and assumed development of the demand by sector, such as cement produced, passenger kilometres travelled, or assumed market volume in US$2015 gross domestic product (GDP).
- Energy intensity—activity based: energy use per unit of service and/or product; for example, in megajoules (MJ) per passenger kilometres travelled (MJ/pkm), MJ per ton of steel (MJ/ton steel), aluminium, or cement.
Energy intensity—finance based: energy use per unit of investment in MJ per US$ GDP (MJ/$GDP) contributed by, for example, the forestry or agricultural sector.
The dataset contains the following scenario output parameters:
- Carbon intensity: current and future carbon intensities per unit of product or service; for example, in tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced (tCO2/ton steel) or grams of carbon dioxide per passenger kilometer (gCO2/pkm).
- Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions: datasets for each of the industry sectors and countries analysed. In addition to the emissions data, the deviations of the emissions from those of the year 2019 are provided.
- Country scenarios: complete country scenario datasets of historical data (2012, 2015–2020) and future projections (2025–2050 in 5-year increments). Energy demand and supply data by technology, fuel, and sector are provided, including the overall energy and carbon emissions balance of the country analysed.
Geographic resolution: country data provided
The dataset contains data for the following 21 countries and regions:
• Regions: global, EU-27
• Countries: G20 member countries—Canada, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Turkey, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Indonesia, India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia
Sectorial resolution: industry sector data provided
The dataset contains data for the following industry sectors:
Agriculture & food processing, forestry & wood products, chemical industry, aluminium industry, construction and buildings, water utilities, textile & leather industry, steel industry, cement industry, transport sector (aviation: freight & passenger transport; shipping: freight & passenger transport; and road transport: freight & passenger transport).
Time resolution
The scenario data are provided for the years 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050.
One Earth Climate Model
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MethodologyRead about the different methodologies to determine energy demand, supply, how to define Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions and renewable energy potential assessments.
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DashboardDashboard OECM 1.5C pathways for G20 countries & industry sectors. Explore energy demand and supply developments until full decarbonisation in 2050.
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Carbon BudgetsHow to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: The OECM identifies the remaining global and national carbon budget for industry and service sectors.
