Scenarios for global, regional (EU-27), and country-specific (G20 member countries) energy and emission pathways required to achieve a defined carbon budget of between 400 GtCO2 and 500 GtCO2, are developed to limit the mean global temperature rise to 1.5°C, over 50% likelihood. The free available data were calculated with the 1.5 °C sectorial pathways of the One Earth Climate Model—an integrated energy assessment model devised at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS).
Geographic resolution: country data provided
The dataset contains data for the following 21 countries and regions:
• Regions: global, EU-27
• Countries: G20 member countries—Canada, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Turkey, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Indonesia, India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia
Sectorial resolution: industry sector data provided
The dataset contains data for the following industry sectors:
Agriculture & food processing, forestry & wood products, chemical industry, aluminium industry, construction and buildings, water utilities, textile & leather industry, steel industry, cement industry, transport sector (aviation: freight & passenger transport; shipping: freight & passenger transport; and road transport: freight & passenger transport).
OECM mitigation pathways for countries
North America
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| G20 | Canada | 
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | USA |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Mexico |
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| 2023 | TBA |
Central America
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| Costa Rica |
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| 2017 | TBA |
South America
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| G20 | Brazil |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Argentina |
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| 2023 | TBA |
Europe
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| EU27 | Austria |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Belgium | 
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Bulgaria |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Croatia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Cyprus |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Czechia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Denmark |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Estonia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Finland |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27/G20 | France |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27/G20 | Germany |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Greece |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Hungary |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Ireland |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27/G20 | Italy |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Latvia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Lithuania |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Luxembourg |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Malta |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | The Netherlands |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Poland |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Romania |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Slovakia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Slovenia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Spain |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| EU27 | Sweden |
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| 2024 | TBA |
| G20 | United Kingdom |
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| 2023 | TBA |
Middle East
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| Saudi Arabia | 2023 | TBA |
Africa
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| Kenya | 
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| 2024 | TBA | |
| Malawi |
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| 2024 | TBA | |
| Rwanda |
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| 2024 | TBA | |
| Senegal |
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| 2024 | TBA | |
| Tanzania |
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| 2024 | TBA | |
| Tunisia |
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| 2024 | TBA |
Asia
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| Bangladesh | 
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| 2018 | TBA | |
| G20 | China |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Indonesia |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | India |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Japan |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| Nepal |
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| 2022 | TBA | |
| G20 | Russia |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | South Korea |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Turkey |
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| 2023 | TBA |
| G20 | Vietnam |
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| 2020 | TBA |
Australia Pacific
| Group | Country | Solar & Wind Potential Analysis | Country analysis | Sector Analysis | Power Sector Analysis | Publication | Link to webpage / report |
| G20 | Australia |
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| 2023 | TBA |
Available OECM data
All energy and sectoral pathways are open data publication. The following dataset are available:
- Market development: current and assumed development of the demand by sector, such as cement produced, passenger kilometres travelled, or assumed market volume in US$2015 gross domestic product (GDP).
- Energy intensity—activity based: energy use per unit of service and/or product; for example, in megajoules (MJ) per passenger kilometres travelled (MJ/pkm), MJ per ton of steel (MJ/ton steel), aluminium, or cement.
Energy intensity—finance based: energy use per unit of investment in MJ per US$ GDP (MJ/$GDP) contributed by, for example, the forestry or agricultural sector.
The dataset contains the following scenario output parameters:
- Carbon intensity: current and future carbon intensities per unit of product or service; for example, in tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced (tCO2/ton steel) or grams of carbon dioxide per passenger kilometer (gCO2/pkm).
- Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions: datasets for each of the industry sectors and countries analysed. In addition to the emissions data, the deviations of the emissions from those of the year 2019 are provided.
- Country scenarios: complete country scenario datasets of historical data (2012, 2015–2020) and future projections (2025–2050 in 5-year increments). Energy demand and supply data by technology, fuel, and sector are provided, including the overall energy and carbon emissions balance of the country analysed.
One Earth Climate Model
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MethodologyRead about the different methodologies to determine energy demand, supply, how to define Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions and renewable energy potential assessments.
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Carbon budgetsHow to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: The OECM identifies the remaining global and national carbon budget for industry and service sectors.
