The effect of parole supervision on recidivism in New South Wales, Australia
This research aims to estimate the causal impact of parole supervision on recidivism among offenders sentenced to short-term prison sentences.
The method used was to compare recidivism rates between parolees and ex-inmates who were released from prison unconditionally. The variation in the sentencing severity of quasi-randomly assigned Local Court magistrates as an instrument of release on parole is used to measure the causal effect of parole supervision.
The results showed that parolees were substantially less likely to re-offend than prisoners released unconditionally. The likelihood of re-conviction, committing a person, property or serious drug offence, and being re-imprisoned within 12 months of release was significantly reduced.
These reductions in recidivism persisted 24 months after release from prison. Furthermore, the findings revealed statistically significant reductions in recidivism among parolees with Medium or above LSI-R scores and below Medium and among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal parolees. In conclusion, it is found that parole supervision had a substantial and lasting impact on reducing recidivism among offenders sentenced to short-term prison sentences.
Featuring guest speaker
Dr Joanna Wang has been a Senior Lecturer in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the University of Technology Sydney since 2019. Between 2017 and 2019, Dr Wang worked as a research Statistician in the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research in the Department of Communities and Justice.
Dr Wang’s research primarily focuses on applied statistics, with applications in health, epidemiology and crime. Her work is motivated by real-world problems arising in these fields, and she is interested in developing statistical tools and methods for analysing data to answer policy-relevant questions.
Currently, she is interested in analysing relevant crime data for undertaking rigorous evaluations to determine the effectiveness of Justice programs and policies.
The Crime & Security Science Research Group (CaSS) in the UTS Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences hosts the Translational Criminology Seminar Series. The series aim to break down barriers between basic and applied criminological research by creating a dynamic interface between research and practice.
