We can budget carbon to cap global warming at 1.5° C
If the global average surface temperature has already increased by 1˚ Celsius, is it still possible to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s target? Yes, according to research from the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures.
A new UTS publication details a blueprint for limiting global warming to 1.5˚C. Photo: Getty Images.
Climate change is the defining threat of the 21st century. It is at the centre of our global risk landscape, affecting global societies and economies through extreme weather events, food and water shortages, sea-level rise, and large-scale migration. The events of 2022 – heat waves in Europe, floods in Australia, wildfires in California – prove that this is no longer a future scenario.
Most experts agree that although far later than hoped, it is not too late to avoid the worst consequences for humankind and our planet. In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested that global warming can be limited to 1.5°C with a carbon budget of 400 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
A new open-access book by scientists at UTS details how this budget can be apportioned across twelve key industry sectors including steel, cement, aviation, road transport and buildings. Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals Part 2: Science-based Target Setting for the Finance industry — Net-Zero Sectoral 1.5˚C Pathways for Real Economy Sectors presents decarbonisation pathways for industry, presenting emission reduction targets in five-year steps from 2025 to 2050.
Editor of the book, Associate Professor Sven Teske from the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures says the message is clear: “we can limit global warming to 1.5˚C with the technology pathways we describe – I call it an action plan to save the future of our children.”
The new research provides a significant amount of data and suggests key performance indicators for the finance industry to help implement ambitious climate targets.
"The transition to a global decarbonised economy is within technical reach, it is economically viable, and we already have access to over 90% of the technologies needed.
““The support of global finance institutions during our research was overwhelming and encouraging. The finance industry clearly showed its commitment to shift investments”, said Associate Professor Teske, who argues what is urgently needed now is meaningful support and investment from governments worldwide.
I call it an action plan to save the future of our children.
Associate Professor Sven Teske
The book follows the 2019 Part 1 edition that focused on country specific energy pathways. With 300,000+ downloads, the volume is among the most successful research publications on the topic to date.
“Our research team is dedicated to make a difference and to provide a solid scientific pathway out of the climate catastrophe to limit global warming to +1.5˚C in line with the Paris Climate Agreement," said Associate Professor Teske, who hopes the new edition will gain similar traction.
The decarbonisation pathways for industry were developed using the OneEarth Climate Model (OECM), which was devised by UTS researchers in 2019 to support the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment initiative (UNPRI) by providing sustainability guidance for the global finance industry.
The OECM is recognised from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net-Zero (GFANZ) and the Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance (NZAOA) – both global coalitions of leading financial institutions committed for the decarbonisation of the global economy – as one of the leading scientific research programs to define science-based climate targets for the global finance industry.
