Have the NRL’s rule changes made boring blowouts the norm?
NRL commentators have bemoaned the number of “blowout” results with a wide margin of victory between the sides. However, the stats tell a different story.
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Throughout the 2021 National Rugby League (NRL) season, commentators bemoaned the number of “blowout” results with a wide margin of victory between the sides.
The average margin of victory during the season was 17.89 points, higher than for any season during the preceding decade.
Many critics, including NRL legend Johnathan Thurston, blamed recent rule changes, which aimed to speed up the game and reduce defending teams’ ability to regroup and catch a breather by giving away a penalty. The new rule, they argued, allows stronger teams to drive weaker opposition to exhaustion more easily.
But as every amateur statistician on Reddit can tell you, correlation does not imply causation. And if we take a closer look at the data, it seems the NRL isn’t quite as dull and predictable as feared.
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