A comprehensive analysis by Dr Sven Teske examining the assumptions, biases and blind spots that have led the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual World Energy Outlook reports, to overestimate the expected role of fossil fuels, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the global energy system and to underestimate the growth of renewable energy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is widely considered to be an authoritative source of energy data and analysis. Its World Energy Outlook (WEO) influences and shapes expectations of how the global energy landscape will evolve over coming decades and is a frequent input into policy and industry decisions. However, the WEO has also been the subject of criticism, particularly over its projection of renewable energy growth, and of its portrayal of the potential to cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming.
By examining WEOs dating back to 2000, this comprehensive analysis by Dr Sven Teske surfaces the assumptions, biases and blind spots that have led the IEA, in its annual WEO reports, to overestimate the expected role of fossil fuels, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the global energy system and to underestimate the growth of renewable energy. This extends beyond the IEA’s well-known and longstanding underestimation of solar PV growth; some sources, such as offshore wind, were not included until they were already contributing significantly to electricity supply.
This retrospective analysis of WEOs over two decades shows a pattern of more optimistic assumptions for fossil fuels and the technologies that will enable fossil fuels – particularly CCS – as well as painting an overly optimistic picture of nuclear energy capacity. WEO scenarios exhibit signs of a consistent bias towards describing future pathways – including those with specific climate constraints – that create minimum disruption to the incumbent fossil fuel industry.
At a time when so much of humanity’s fate rests on the speed with which greenhouse gas emissions are cut, it is imperative that the IEA provide a balanced approach to energy technologies.
We hope that this report will inform analysis and decisions both within the WEO team, and among those who use and wish to better understand this highly influential scenario series.
