Predicting physical maturity in young players

UTS researchers: Dr Job Fransen, Dr Stephen Woodcock

Young sports players who are taller, heavier and more muscular are often spotted early for their potential for success at an elite level. Despite inconsistent rates of physical maturation, children and adolescents compete in the same chronological age category. This large discrepancy in biological age often favours early maturing children and adolescents for high-level youth sports programs and increases the risk of drop-out in players who are relatively late maturing, particularly in sports like rugby, football, or Australian football where fitness and greater body size are a considerable advantage. 

In collaboration with the School of Mathematical Sciences, this research aims to develop a new prediction equation to accurately estimate physical maturity in children and adolescents. This research draws on data collected from a sample of children from the general population and a sample of high-level youth soccer players. Using a polynominal model, the new equation helps to predict maturity in children with a higher degree of accuracy than before. The research will have a significant impact on talent identification in team sports as practitioners will be able to better understand and mitigate the risks associated with large discrepancies in physical maturity.

“Previously, measuring maturity has relied upon difficult and invasive procedures such as the assessment of sexual maturation characteristics or X-raying a child’s wrist. That’s why there is a dire need for the development of a non-invasive procedure to accurately estimate maturity in children and adolescents. Without the input of a mathematician, we would not have had the robust mathematical procedures to develop the new prediction model." - Dr Job Fransen