The One Earth Climate Model (OECM) shows how regions, countries and industry sectors can meet the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The model is unique in its level of detail and in its focus on proven and cost-effective technologies. It shows that the Paris target is achievable with a 100% transition to renewables by 2050, coupled with natural climate and conservation measures.
History and reception
The OECM was developed in 2017-18 by a collective of 17 scientists from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the University of Melbourne’s Climate & Energy College. Associate Professor Sven Teske from the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) is lead scientist on the project.
The first iteration of the OECM was launched at the World Economic Forum in 2019. It featured carbon-reduction breakdowns for 10 world regions that were published in the open-access book, Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, which at August 2023 has been downloaded more than 375,000 times. The second part of the book - which focusses on Industry sectors, was published In August 2022 and has been downloaded 75,000 In the first year.
This research prompted the European Commission to invite Teske to present the OECM work to its members, ahead of the release of its latest climate target.
Subsequently, the Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance commissioned a series of OECM pathways for key industry sectors. The Sectoral Pathways to Net Zero Emissions report was published in 2021. It showed detailed breakdowns for 12 industry and service sectors: aluminium, chemical, cement, steel and textile and leather industry, power and gas utilities, agriculture, forestry, the aviation and shipping industry, road transport, and real estate and buildings.
Dr Teske and colleagues at ISF have used the OECM to produce a number of further outputs including maps of solar and wind potential for Bangladesh and 100% renewable energy scenarios for Nepal.
OECM archive
Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals (2018) (Executive summary)
Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals (2019) (Book)
Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals Part 2: Science-based Target Setting for the Finance industry – Net-Zero Sectoral 1.5˚C Pathways for Real Economy Sectors (2022) (Open Access book download)
B) OECM data results:
Technical Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy in Nepal by 2050 (2023) (Report)
Technical Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy in Nepal by 2050 (Nepalese) (2023) (Executive summary)
Online map links:
Contact us
For enquires about commissioning One Earth Climate Model research contact Sven Teske sven.teske@uts.edu.au
