Hidden casualty of Russia’s war: global phosphorus security

Amid worsening global disruptions to food and fertiliser supply due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, one of the world’s essential resources is under threat.

Without phosphorus, we cannot produce food – anywhere in the world. Phosphorus is extracted from non-renewable phosphate rock reserves for use in crop fertilisers, livestock feeds and food additives.

A few countries control the world’s remaining phosphate, China and Russia are among them. Global phosphate prices have spiked 400 per cent since early 2020 due to supply chain disruptions, export bans and sanctions.

A new report by 40 leading international scientists warns that global mismanagement of this finite resource is causing twin crises: widespread pollution and global scarcity. The report calls on governments across the world to adopt a “50, 50, 50” goal: a 50 per cent reduction in global pollution from phosphorus and a 50 per cent increase in recycling of the nutrient by the year 2050.

While Australia is seen as a food-secure nation, it is one of the world’s top phosphate importers for food production. This makes the country vulnerable to the decisions of a handful of phosphate-producing countries, warns UTS Associate Professor Dana Cordell, a lead author of the report.

“At the same time, vast amounts of phosphorus and other nutrients are ending up in our waterways, with potentially toxic effects, from the Great Barrier Reef to the Hawkesbury-Nepean rivers,” says Associate Professor Cordell.

“There are so many actions we can, and need, to take now to ensure access to sustainable phosphorus sources to grow our food – from investing in local renewable fertiliser markets that use food waste and wastewater as raw materials, to eating more plant-based diets with a lower carbon and phosphorus footprint.

“Phosphorus needs to be on the national agenda – it is an issue of national security and food security. The benefits of investing in sustainable phosphorus strategies will be enormous to our farmers, our economy and our environment. But the cost of inaction will be devastating.”

Associate Professor Cordell and her phosphorus team at the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures have been investigating the global phosphorus challenge since 2006 and working with stakeholders around the world to develop sustainable strategies. They hope the new Albanese Labor government will take this issue seriously.

“The 800 per cent phosphate price spike in 2008 was a wake-up call to the world, demonstrating how vulnerable our food systems are to even a short-term shock. There was a Senate Inquiry here in Australia. But nothing much has changed. Phosphorus is everyone’s business – we can’t grow food without it, but no one is taking responsibility.”

The OFP Report

 

 

REPORT RECOMMENDATIONS

• Integrating livestock and crop production so phosphorus in animal manure is applied to crops, reducing the demand for chemical fertilisers
   
• Moving towards more sustainable diets, which would reduce the amount of phosphorus needed to grow animal feed;
   
• Reducing global food waste, meaning less demand for crops and animal products, and therefore phosphorus (a recent UNEP report estimated global food waste from households, retail establishments and the food service industry totals 931 million tonnes each year)
   
• Improving wastewater treatment to remove phosphorus from sewage, so it can be reused and does not enter lakes and rivers.

FACT SHEET

GLOBAL

• Phosphate rock is the primary raw material used to make phosphate fertilisers. It is a finite resource (like oil, it has taken tens of millions of years to form)
   
• Five countries control 85% of the world’s phosphate rock reserves: Morocco (70%), China (5%), Egypt (4%) Algeria (3%), and Syria (3%)
   
• Four countries are responsible for 72% of the global production of phosphate rock in 2021: China (39%), Morocco (17%), the US (10%) and Russia (6%)
   
• Gas is also an essential raw material for most phosphate fertilisers as they also contain nitrogen. Russia’s war on Ukraine has disrupted global gas markets and the global price of gas has soared
   
• ·Phosphorus pollution in lakes, rivers and coasts accelerates the growth of algal blooms which produce toxins that are harmful to animals and humans.
   
• Despite being a finite resource, phosphate rock prices have historically been relatively cheap, leading to global dependence on a single source. This has also led to liberal use of fertilisers in many high-income countries, while in low and middle-income countries in Sub Saharan Africa and South East Asia, up to one in seven farmers can’t access fertiliser markets.

AUSTRALIA

• Australia is the world’s 5th largest phosphate importer, despite our relatively small population
   
• Australia has naturally phosphorus-deficient soils – ancient and weathered – yet we have invested heavily in phosphorus-intensive export industries such as beef and wheat. Two-thirds of our phosphorus use is for livestock production
   
• Most of the phosphorus used in Australia is exported in agricultural commodities
   
• The Great Barrier Reef is under threat from nutrient pollution in wastewater discharges and flood waters from agricultural runoff.