New research helps inform action to protect Sydney’s drinking water many decades into the future.
How can utilities like WaterNSW prepare now for an uncertain future?
The UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) and WaterNSW recently addressed this issue by taking a novel approach to predicting the future.
In an exercise of ‘science-based imagination’, they drew on historical rates of land use to construct multiple narrative scenarios describing alternate futures in 2040 and 2060.
The research uses spacial modelling to show how changes in land use may impact the catchments that protect the quality and quantity of water essential to the 5 million people of Greater Sydney.
The 2040 and 2060 future catchment scenarios are helping WaterNSW understand and plan now, for future megatrends and local drivers, that may create potential risks or opportunities for water supply and catchment health.
It was a privilege to partner with WaterNSW and support them planning for uncertain water futures using foresighting methods and land use mapping.
– Ebony Heslop, ISF
WaterNSW Executive Manager Strategy & Performance, Fiona Smith says, “Scenarios like these are a valuable tool our scientists and water industry experts can use to engage with the long-term future whilst acknowledging inherent uncertainty. Such creative visualistion enables preparedness and resilience several decades into the future.”
ISF Research Principal Ebony Heslop adds, “It was a privilege to partner with WaterNSW and support them planning for uncertain water futures using foresighting methods and land use mapping."
“We used interactive workshops to co-develop possible future scenarios for Sydney’s Drinking Water Catchments. This brought out valuable knowledge from a broad range of WaterNSW stakeholders and kickstarted their thinking on how to embed resilience in strategic planning.”
The scenarios will give WaterNSW the opportunity to understand and address significant impacts to catchment health and water quality issues before they become apparent.
This research goes further to support WaterNSW’s core research themes:
Catchment resilience – understanding how catchment health and water quality work together to ensure a safe drinking water supply, and ensuring we have the knowledge to best manage and protect the catchments in a changing climate.
Integrated water management – understanding how changes to the environment and supply configuration impact water quality and quantity, and how we can improve water quantity without compromising water quality.