Two ISF researchers, Sven Teske and Juliet Willetts, traveled to Dubai recently for COP28, where they presented their work on carbon budget modelling and climate change adaptation and resilience. Here, they share their insights from the conference.
Sven Teske
Most significant takeaway
Much has changed since the first COP in 1995. During the first 10 years, academia and civil society had to fight hard to convince the fossil fuel-dominated economies to recognise that the world’s climate changes. It took almost another two decades to reach the historic milestone of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement in which the world agreed that the climate changes due to human economic activities that cause Greenhouse Gas emissions, and that we must limit run-away climate change to under +2C.
At COP28, hosted by an oil-producing country, any mention of a required fossil fuel phase-out caused fierce resistance from OPEC countries. This is nothing new, but this year it was openly stated in a letter from OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, urging its members and allies to reject any mention of fossil fuels in the final summit deal, warning that “undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point”.
This is obviously a harsh statement against any form of comprehensive climate mitigation, but it also shows how successful the renewable energy industry has grown and is affecting the demand for fossil fuels. While profits are still high for fossil fuel companies due to price spikes cause by the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the demand is soon expected to reach its peak and start to decline.
What now? Urgent actions following COP
In my view, there are two main things that need to be addressed:
On a positive note…
More and more developing countries are actively embracing renewable energy pathways. ISF developed three energy pathways for the Least Developed Countries – Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda– which were launched at a COP28 side event on 10 December. We are currently developing pathways for three more African countries.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency are now a vital part of climate negotiations. While this seems obvious, it has taken over 20 years for this to be acknowledged in a COP declaration. The OPEC letter was rightly seen as a scandal, but it also shows how desperate the fossil fuel industry is. They have seen the writing on the wall that the renewable energy industry is now strong enough to push oil, gasand coal demand down. We’ve already started the energy transition, and it is irreversible.
Juliet Willetts
My take is focused on climate adaptation, specifically in relation to water and sanitation. Adaptation has lagged in terms of attention and funding, despite climate impacts becoming increasingly obvious and widespread. And only at COP27 was water mentioned in outcome documents.
Stand-out ideas from the sessions
Although the Paris agreement included a focus on adaptation, the large majority of climate financing has been focused on mitigation, and there are calls to increase the amount allocated to adaptation, particularly for developing countries. In many of the negotiations there were increasing calls from developing countries including Bangladesh and the Pacific, for recognition of the urgency for adaptation action. And whilst the agreement on Loss and Damage fund represents welcome progress, investment in adaptation still requires more attention.
One of the aspects on adaptation discussed at COP28, and which have potential to progress this area, was the ‘Global Goal on Adaptation’ (GGA). The GGA is described in Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, noting intention to establish a global goal on adaptation, to enhance adaptative capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, but until now that goal had not yet been agreed on and operationalised.
Developments from COP
A two-year Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work program with objectives to enable the full and sustained implementation of the Paris Agreement article 7 culminated at COP28, including agreement on the GGA.
ISF, among others, has been arguing that water is an essential resource for adaptation. Therefore, it must be highlighted as a strong component of the GGA Framework. As a result, both climate resilient water supply and climate resilient sanitation have been included in the final draft text for the GGA as part of a set of thematic targets along with food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, poverty and livelihood vulnerability and cultural heritage. ISF also led sessions with UNICEF and WHO with Green Climate Fund, World Bank and others on better guidance for climate financing in the water sector, particularly to guide investments in climate resilient sanitation, which can have both mitigation and adaptation benefits.