The energy report ‘Rwanda: Energy Development Plan to Decarbonise the Economy’ is the result of a joint research by Power Shift Africa (PSA) and the University of Technology Sydney – Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS-ISF) conducted between January 2023 and April 2024. The reports also form part of a contribution by PSA to a broader partnership with the Least Developed Countries Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Initiative for Sustainable Development (LDC REEEI) in an effort to kick-start African leadership on renewable energy progress and ambitions.
The task was to develop comprehensive energy scenarios for Rwanda which challenge outdated assumptions about renewable energy and ‘business as usual’ approaches to energy systems and development by providing new scientific input for future policies. A focus of this work lies on the development of a 100% Renewable Energy Pathway to provide data for future National Determined Contribution (NDC) reports for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Rwanda has significant solar energy resources – detailed solar and wind potential assessment conducted by ISF. The solar and wind analysis maps are accessible here: Solar Potential Map, Onshore Wind Potential Map.
The 100% Renewable Energy pathways are developed as robust, reliable and cost-effective energy plans and based on GIS based renewable energy potential analysis for solar and wind energy, hourly simulation to determine a high-level analysis of the required storage and grid expansion requirements.
The energy pathways aim to phase-out energy-related CO2 emissions as fast as possible while implementing fast and ambitious energy access programs.
The energy demand analysis is based on the following assumptions:
Economic growth high enough to develop toward middle-income country levels
Increased energy demand for services and industries
Growth and decarbonisation in the transport sector
Access to reliable and affordable energy services for all households to achieve OECD household standards by 2050.
A comprehensive energy plan for Rwanda
Rwanda’s economy developed successfully over the past decade with an increase of the per-capita GDP by 70% between 2015 and 2023. This research aims to support Rwanda’s energy policy debate and the further development of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS II) published in the same year.
The One Earth Climate Model for Rwanda consists of two scenarios: The 1.5˚C Paris aligned pathway that was developed to provide input for Rwanda’s future National Determined Contribution (NDC) submission. A REFERENCE case shows the impact of a 15-year delay of the 1.5˚C scenario.
Tanzania: Cost analysis
All three sectors have very low costs for the power sector because electricity generation is based on solar and wind power – the remaining fuel costs are for the period 2021-2030. Increased electrification will lead to higher investment costs in power generation and higher overall electricity supply costs for Tanzania. Under the most ambitious electrification strategy of the T-1.5°C pathway, total investment in power generation will be 487 trillion TZS (US$ 195 billion).
Rwanda: Investment and cost savings
All three sectors will reduce fuel cost over time because electricity generation is based renewables – with significant shares of solar and wind power. However, increased electrification will lead to higher investment costs in power generation and higher overall electricity supply costs for the R-1.5°C scenario. The R-1.5°C scenario requires an investment in power generation of 38 trillion RWF (US$ 47 billion) and 30 trillion RWF (US$ 24 billion) in heat generation. The total investment in power and heat generation capacities therefore adds up to 68 trillion RWF (US$ 71 billion). Additional power generation investments will be compensated by fuel costs savings in the decade that they are made. Across the entire scenario period, fuel cost savings under the R-1.5°C scenario compared to the REFERENCE case will be 4.2 trillion RWF (US$ 27 billion) will cover more than half of the total investment in generation capacities until 2050 - about 2.5 times the additional investment in comparison of the R-1.5˚C pathway. In countries with a high level of energy access, fuel cost savings almost always refinance the investment in new renewable energy generation. Rwanda, however, has a low energy access rate and therefore, additional investment in energy infrastructure are required in any case
Energy System analysis for Rwanda
The Rwanda energy plan does not only provide a comprehensive renewable energy assessment and a detailed energy demand projection for residential buildings, the service sector, industry and mining and transport, but also includes a detailed electricity system analysis.
In the analysis, the yearly electricity demand is broken down into hourly load curves projected for 2030 and 2050. The entire power sector of the country is simulated with the generation structure and historical solar and wind data. The simulation verifies the possibility of achieving a high security of supply with 100% renewable energy generation. The consequent increased demand on the power grid transmission capacities, possible new inter-provincial connections, and/or the required expansion of energy storage facilities are all calculated.
The report finds that 100% renewable energy is not only achievable with existing technology, but cost saving and climate friendly too.
Colin Besaans, Programme Manager for African Energy Transition at Power Shift Africa says:
“Africa sits at a crossroads where many of our countries are making pivotal decisions about the future of their energy systems and development trajectories. For too long, outdated assumptions about renewable energy have been used to justify continued investments in the fossil fuel technologies that are locking us into the systems of the past. We are incredibly excited to be launching this research which makes clear that it is already possible to achieve 100% renewable energy systems that are secure, stable, cost saving, and great for the climate. We hope this can contribute to necessary conversations about how to raise African ambitions on renewable energy and avoid the maldevelopment of further fossil fuel lock-in.”
A/Prof Dr. Sven Teske, Scientific leader of the research says:
“Rwanda has significant local renewable energy resources such as geothermal energy and hydro. Furthermore, our research shows that the solar and wind energy potential alone would be sufficient to supply the country's current and future electricity needs entirely. The fastest and most cost-effective way for Rwanda to become a middle-income country is through the use of domestic renewable energies. Our analysis showed that an annual investment in new power generation capacities of around US$1.6 billion is sufficient until 2050 and can be refinanced by savings in imported fossil fuels. The international community should provide Rwanda with sufficient financing.”
Download the report
Citation: Teske, S., Feenstra, M, Miyake, S., Rispler, J.,Mohseni, S. (2025) Kenya: Energy Development Plan to Decarbonise the Economy; prepared for Power Shift Africa by The University of Technology Sydney, Institute for Sustainable Futures; March 2025.